Finding
Silicon autonomy fails at the least glamorous node: the 2021 shortage and the 2025 Nexperia crisis both stopped vehicle lines over cheap mature-node parts
In 2021, shortages of microcontrollers and power-management chips cost automakers millions of units of output while leading-edge supply was fine. In October 2025, after the Dutch government took control of Nexperia, China blocked exports from Nexperia's Dongguan packaging plant, and within weeks Honda cut output in Mexico and Volkswagen and Bosch warned of stoppages over transistors and diodes worth cents.
Concentration runs by layer. TSMC makes roughly 90% of leading-edge logic and dominates CoWoS packaging, so every Nvidia, Tesla AI5 and Horizon Robotics chip passes through Taiwan. HBM is a three-company market that was sold out through 2026. Power semiconductors are more distributed, but the SiC base is shifting: Wolfspeed went through Chapter 11 in 2025 while Chinese substrate makers SICC and TanKeBlue cut prices and took share. GaN is moving too: TSMC said in 2025 it will exit GaN foundry work by 2027, and China's Innoscience is now the largest GaN device maker by volume.
Silicon sits directly above Materials Autonomy because gallium, germanium and polysilicon feed it, and below Energy Autonomy because SiC and GaN switch every charger, inverter and BESS power stage. The main US response is fabs on US soil: TSMC Arizona, Intel Ohio and Arizona, Texas Instruments at Sherman, and Samsung's Taylor, Texas fab, contracted in 2025 to build Tesla's AI6.
Chip layers
Chip classes, concentration and shocks
| Chip class | Concentration | Recent shock or control | Systems hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading-edge logic and AI accelerators | TSMC ~90% (Taiwan); Samsung; SMIC (China, 7 nm class) | US export controls on AI chips and tools to China; China discourages Nvidia H20 purchases (2025) | AV compute, robot brains, training clusters |
| HBM and DRAM | SK hynix, Samsung, Micron; CXMT (China) | HBM sold out through 2026; memory prices spiking | AI servers, central vehicle computers |
| Automotive MCUs and PMICs | NXP, Infineon, Renesas, ST, TI; much of it fabbed at TSMC | 2021 shortage | Every ECU, BMS and body controller |
| Discretes and standard logic | Nexperia, Rohm, Diodes, onsemi | October 2025 Nexperia export block | ECUs, lighting, seat and door modules |
| SiC devices and substrates | Infineon, ST, onsemi, Wolfspeed, Rohm, BYD Semi; SICC, TanKeBlue substrates | Wolfspeed Chapter 11 (2025); Chinese substrate price cuts | Traction inverters, DC fast chargers, BESS |
| GaN devices | Infineon, Innoscience (China), Navitas, EPC | TSMC exiting GaN foundry by 2027; US-Innoscience patent rulings | Onboard chargers, data center power supplies |
| Image sensors and radar | Sony, OmniVision (China-owned), Samsung; NXP, TI, Infineon radar | Concentrated in a few suppliers per modality | Cameras, radar, perception |
SiC and GaN
Why wide-bandgap chips decide electrification
| Technology | Strength | Where it is used | Leading makers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silicon carbide (SiC) | High voltage, high temperature, low switching loss | 800 V traction inverters, DC fast chargers, solar and BESS inverters | Infineon, ST, onsemi, Wolfspeed, Rohm, BYD Semi, StarPower |
| Gallium nitride (GaN) | Very high switching frequency, compact converters | Onboard chargers, 48 V and 800 V data center power, adapters | Infineon, Innoscience, Navitas, EPC, Texas Instruments |
| Silicon IGBT | Low cost, mature, well understood | 400 V inverters, industrial drives, cost-focused EVs | Infineon, Mitsubishi Electric, Fuji, BYD Semi, StarPower |
In-house silicon
Who designs their own chips
Owning the design moves a company from SA-1 Aware toward SA-2 Hybrid; it does not remove foundry dependence.
| Company | Chip | Foundry |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla | AI4 in production; AI5 next; AI6 contracted | Samsung, TSMC (AI5 at both); Samsung Taylor (AI6) |
| Nio | Shenji NX9031 autonomy chip (5 nm) | TSMC |
| XPeng | Turing AI chip, also used in robots and flying cars | Not disclosed |
| BYD | In-house SiC and IGBT power modules | BYD Semiconductor fabs |
| Horizon Robotics | Journey 6 family, sold to many Chinese OEMs | TSMC |
| Nvidia | DRIVE Thor central computer | TSMC |
Readiness
Silicon readiness bands
ElectronsX rating scale.
| Band | Characteristics | Symptoms |
|---|---|---|
| SA-0 Dependent | Single foundry, single node, no packaging view, little inventory | Allocation emergencies and program slips |
| SA-1 Aware | Critical chips mapped; some alternates identified | Risk known; architecture still exposed |
| SA-2 Hybrid | Multi-source key parts, portable designs, long-term agreements, buffer stock | Absorbs most shocks |
| SA-3 Autonomous | Chip criticality map, diverse fab and packaging paths, substitution-ready boards | Products ship through foundry and regional shocks |
Sources
Sources and scope
- Scope
- Silicon Autonomy
- Sources
- TrendForce; SIA; Reuters and Bloomberg reporting on Nexperia (October-November 2025); Wolfspeed, TSMC and Samsung disclosures; company filings
- Updated
- October 2026