Natural Gas

turbines · backlogs · on-site power

GE Vernova is selling 2031 delivery slots and turbine prices are up nearly threefold since 2019. Gas power is limited by equipment, not fuel.

Gas turbine backlog in mid-2026: GE Vernova 116 GW including 63 GW of slot reservations, Siemens Energy 69 GW, Mitsubishi Power 35 GW. Global orders reached about 110 GW against factory output of 60 to 70 GW a year. Wood Mackenzie projects turbine prices up 195% from 2019 to 2027, to about $600 per kW, and new GE Vernova orders now deliver in 2031. GAS TURBINE BACKLOG, MID-2026 GE Vernova 116 GW* Siemens Energy 69 GW Mitsubishi Power 35 GW * includes 63 GW of paid slot reservations ORDERS VS ANNUAL CAPACITY (WOODMAC) Global orders 110 GW Factory output 60-70 GW/yr +195%Turbine price, 2019 to 2027, to ~$600/kWNew GE Vernova orders deliver in 2031
GE Vernova backlog
116 GW
Orders vs output
110 / 65 GW
Price rise
+195%
Gas in US queues
+86%
Hub
Energy

Finding

Gas turbines are now as scarce as transformers

Data centers turned natural gas from a bridge fuel into the fastest firm power a developer can buy - if it can get a turbine. GE Vernova closed mid-2026 with 116 GW of gas backlog and reservations and is selling 2031 delivery slots; Siemens Energy held 69 GW and Mitsubishi Power 35 GW. Wood Mackenzie counts about 110 GW of orders against 60-70 GW of yearly factory output and projects prices up 195% from 2019 to 2027.

More than 60% of Siemens Energy's recent US turbine orders are tied to data centers. Gas capacity in US interconnection queues rose 86% in 2025 to 253 GW (LBNL), while solar, storage and wind in the queues fell. Developers who cannot wait are turning to aeroderivative turbines, reciprocating engines and fuel cells on site, behind the meter, to skip both the turbine line and the grid queue.

Gas also sits under much of the rest of electrification: combined heat and power at campuses and plants, backup at depots and fabs, and the peakers that cover evenings when solar fades. Its limit for the next five years is equipment, not fuel.

Inside the turbine

The bottleneck is the blade casting

The slowest part of a large gas turbine is its hot section: single-crystal nickel-superalloy blades and vanes that only three or four foundries worldwide can cast at large-frame size. Their order books reportedly run to 2029-2030, and the casting queue alone can stretch a 24-month turbine delivery to 36-42 months.

That is why SpaceX is building its own gas turbine blade and vane foundry at its Bastrop, Texas complex, on about 830 acres beside its Starlink factory. Elon Musk confirmed the project in August 2026, called casting "the limiting factor" for turbine production, and said it could bring turbines online up to 18 months sooner. The first customer is SpaceX itself, for the gas-fired power behind its and xAI's data centers; permits were pending as of September 2026.

Equipment

Gas generation by type

Gas generation equipment
TypeSizeExamplesNotes
Large-frame combined cycle300-600+ MW per unitGE 7HA, Siemens SGT-9000HL, Mitsubishi M501JACBacklogged to 2030-31
Simple-cycle and aeroderivative30-100 MWGE LM2500/LM6000, Siemens SGT-800, PW Power SystemsFaster delivery; used behind the meter at data centers
Reciprocating engines1-20 MW eachWärtsilä, Caterpillar, JenbacherModular; fast start; campus and depot backup
Fuel cellsMW-scale blocksBloom EnergyOn-site power for data centers; no combustion
Combined heat and power1-100 MWTurbines or engines with heat recovery70-80% total efficiency at factories and campuses

Record

Dataset Record

Scope
Natural gas generation equipment and its role in firm power for electrified loads
Sources
GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi quarterly results (2026); Wood Mackenzie gas turbine price report; LBNL Queued Up 2026
Updated
October 2026
Status
Mockup · claims pending verification